What Are the Likely Outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (left), American President Donald Trump (right)

An end to the Russia-Ukraine war is in sight. United States White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on February 22, 2025, that President Trump is confident he will strike a deal with Russia to end the conflict within the upcoming week. Ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a priority in the field of foreign policy for the Trump administration. While campaigning, President Trump stated that he would end the conflict in 24 hours. President Trump has now been in power for over a month, and with recent developments that will see representatives from America and Russia meet, it seems there is an end in sight to the conflict. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has established itself as the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. As a result, securing a lasting peace deal has become a focal point of geopolitics. This article plans to dive into what a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would look like. 

Between President Trump’s comments accusing Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and their viral interview, Ukraine is in an incredibly difficult diplomatic situation to navigate. Prior to the election in Washington, D.C., the United States was Ukraine’s greatest geopolitical asset. Things have drastically changed for Ukraine since President Trump’s inauguration. President Trump has an unfavorable view of President Zelenskyy and Ukraine.  

What this means for Ukraine 

• President Trump has begun to put extreme diplomatic pressure on President Zelenskyy to end the war with Russia. In their viral interview, President Trump states that President Zelenskyy was gambling with World War III. President Trump even went on to say, “sign a deal or we’re out.” Ukraine cannot continue this conflict without the United States without increased intervention from European nations, but even then, it may still not be enough. Since President Trump excluded Ukraine from the peace negotiations between the United States and Russia, Ukraine effectively has no influence over the outcome of these talks. Although there has not been much news on what a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine may look like, it is highly probable that Ukraine will have to make some land concessions. Most likely the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Practically Ukrainian version of states/provinces). Also, Ukraine will have to abandon its aspirations of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). On the other hand, America will certainly not let Russia keep all its controlled land in Ukraine. Due to the United States and Ukraine's mineral agreement deal, the United States has an incentive to retain as much land for Ukraine in hopes of obtaining more minerals. In addition, President Trump has floated the idea of lifting sanctions on Moscow; in conjunction with President Trump’s words, Russia would have to make concessions.  

Ukraine's geopolitical position is still in doubt as the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches a resolution. Ukraine is facing serious diplomatic hardships because of President Trump's exclusion from important peace talks. The final conditions of peace will be determined in large part by the changing relationship between the United States and Ukraine, which has been influenced by President Trump's statements and demands. Although a settlement might be imminent, it is unclear if the necessary concessions will maintain Ukraine's sovereignty or fundamentally change its geopolitical identity. The future of Ukraine’s geopolitical situation will undergo great uncertainty in the days ahead.