U.S.-Iran Relations: Nuclear Tensions, Trump’s Second Term, and the Future of Middle East Stability

Iran and the United States

Since the birth of the Iranian Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has remained one of the largest geopolitical threats to the United States. Once one of America’s most strategic allies in the Middle East, diplomatic relations with Iran have taken a complete turn for the worse. Over the last 10 years, the United States’ stance on Iran has undergone some major changes. Under President Trump’s second term, the United States may take a different approach to diplomatic relations with Iran.  

What went wrong? 

• To fully understand U.S.-Iran relations, one must be aware of the recent history between the United States and Iran. In 1953, a combined effort from the United Kingdom and the United States overthrew the Iranian Prime Minister as he nationalized Iranian oil fields, which were heavily dominated by the two western powers. As a result, the Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) was reinstated in Iran. The Shah’s government was a secular, authoritarian, constitutional monarchy aligned with the West. Eventually, in 1979, an Islamic revolution in Iran overthrew the Shah’s government. The Islamic government is an authoritarian theocracy with some hints of republicanism. With the installation of the Islamic Republic, Iran took a swing away from aligning with the West. Events such as the U.S embassy crisis in Tehran and the Beirut bombings of 1983 only continued to drive a wedge between the two states. It even got to the point that the United States supported Saddam Hussein and Iraq whilst knowing of their chemical weapons use in their war against Iran. These hostile relations have only continued to worsen, and any hopes for a restoration of previous friendly relations would only seem to be possible under a regime change in Iran. 

  
  

The Iranian nuclear threat 

• American politicians and leaders in the foreign policy realm heavily resent the idea of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons for multiple reasons. One of the largest is the almost certain reaction of Iran’s greatest rival, Israel. If Iran were to obtain a nuke, Israel would undoubtedly be forced to retaliate. Iran and Israel are constantly in conflict with one another, with recent talks that Israel has ambitions to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. When discussing the potential of Iran obtaining a nuke, it is important to consider Iran’s involvement with its proxy groups in Hamas and Hezbollah. As of June 2025, Israel is still in direct conflict with Hamas, and if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon, Israel would feel incredibly threatened.  

  
  

• The potential of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would also set off a regional security dilemma. Many of Iran’s non-nuclear regional rivals, such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, would be seriously threatened by the idea of a nuclear Iran. Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East, potentially forcing nations like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to act upon obtaining a nuclear weapon of their own.  

  
  

American efforts to stop the Iranian nuclear threat 

• In 2015, the United States, under the Obama administration, came to an agreement (along with other states) with Iran on a deal to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. This was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. The JCPOA put caps on Iranian uranium enrichment, which ultimately delayed the time it would take for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Within the agreement, it was agreed upon for Iran to undergo examinations of their nuclear facilities to ensure their compliance with the treaty. Also, sunset clauses were built into the deal, allowing Iran to continue uranium enrichment after a set date. In return for Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA, crucial sanctions on Iran were lifted. For example, allowing the Iranians to fully resume oil exports.  

  
  

The Future 

• As Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA (stating that it was a one-sided deal in favor of Iran), many expected President Trump to take a hardline stance against Iran and continue the harsh sanctions. So far into President Trump’s second term, this has not been the case. President Trump has expressed a desire to reach a new deal with the Iranians, one that is stricter and fully stops any uranium enrichment, even for civilian use, by the Iranians. Iran has remained persistent in wanting some level of uranium enrichment. With both sides having their demands, President Trump has threatened to use force against Iranian nuclear facilities if no progress on a deal has been made. With speculation of strained American-Israeli relations, the geopolitical climate surrounding Iran and its nuclear capabilities will continue to develop within the upcoming months.