Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine's Pathways to Victory

Brady Moschella

Political Blog

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing for over two and a half years. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians and far more Russians have been injured during the gruesome conflict. With the current United States Presidential election looming, Ukraine may lose all military and economic support. In hopes to wrap the conflict up, Ukrainian “President” Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently laid out a five-pronged plan quintessential to Ukraine's victory. The victory plan has five main declassified points, and three classified points unknown to the public. The five major points consist of,  

•       NATO membership for Ukraine 

•       Increased military defense support, and allowing long-range missile strikes into Russian territory

•       Non-nuclear deterrence package installed in Ukraine

•       Protection of Ukrainian Natural Resources

•       Post-war replacement of US troops in Europe with experienced Ukrainian troops

The three classified points to the plan have been shared with major Ukrainian allies such as the US, France, United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a defense alliance created after the

Second World War to protect its members from the Soviet Union. Since the fall of the

Soviet Union in 1991, NATO has been repurposed to contain Russia. The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994, between the United States, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Its purpose was for Ukraine to turn over its nuclear weapon stockpile inherited by the collapsed Soviet Union in exchange for “The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirmed their obligations to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense. Or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.” (treaties.un.org). Until the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, there was no significant urge for Ukraine to join NATO, as the Ukrainians believed that this memorandum would hold up. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, this was not the case. As the Ukrainians have given up their nuclear weapons and Russia violated the Budapest memorandum in 2014, there has been a considerable push for the Ukrainians to find additional security to protect their statehood. In this case, joining NATO. The most crucial problem with Ukraine’s membership in NATO is that they are currently at war with Russia. The Russian state has articulated that if Ukraine were to join NATO, it would be interpreted as an act of hostility. The further and further Ukraine aligns itself with the West, the more hostile the Russian government becomes. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the new Russian Federation had extremely close ties with the newly independent state of Ukraine. Russian and Ukrainian language and culture are remarkably similar. The now Ukrainian city of Kyiv is considered by many historians the birthplace of “Russia.” It was the city that introduced Orthodox Christianity to the Slavic people. With all the historical context between the two nations, one might find it reasonable for Russia to act with such hostilities against a newly found alignment to the Western world from Ukraine.

            Ukraine's membership in NATO affects not only Russia but also the United States. Adding Ukraine to the alliance during the ongoing war is a certainty for involving the United States in direct conflict with the Russians. Involving the two largest nuclear powers in a direct conflict is a recipe for disaster. Article Five of NATO states that an attack on one is an attack on all. If NATO were to admit Ukraine to the alliance while at war with Russia, Article Five would be triggered. This would guarantee a military response from the additional thirty-one member states. The United States and the rest of the NATO alliance have a decision to make. Is it worth it to admit Ukraine and potentially escalate a full-scale war with Russia, or continue supporting Ukraine from a distance?

The United States and NATO have been funding the Ukrainian war efforts since the beginning of this conflict in 2022. According to the US Department of State, the United States has supported Ukraine with more than 61.4 billion in military assistance (www.state.gov). The European Union states that twenty-seven member states have sent the Ukrainians over 167 billion in total aid (eeas.europa.edu). These numbers are staggering as this amount accumulates to over 220 billion in total aid to the Ukrainians since 2022. The Ukrainian Gross Domestic Product is only a mere 161 billion. Although this aid may seem unnecessary, it has deterred a swift Russian victory. Zelenskyy claims that the Ukrainians need more aid to continue fighting the Russians. The first part of the aid they are requesting is long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. Ukraine has made slight territorial gains in Russian lands and has made some military strikes in Russian territories. Putin has warned the West to prevent Ukraine from striking into Russian territory as it would lead to direct fighting. The United States and the European Union have been very hesitant to do so. After igniting a full-scale war in Ukraine, the Russians have not succeeded in their goal of “liberating” the Donbas region. Just because the Russians started the war, does not mean that the Ukrainians are not allowed to strike behind Russian front lines. Especially if it comes with great strategic benefits for the Ukrainians. Although it is unlikely that anyone supplies Ukraine with these weapons, it is within reason for Ukraine to request them. 

The second part of the military aid that Ukraine is requesting cooperation from their European neighbors in shooting down Russian drones and missiles. These neighboring countries may be the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia). Even though Russia has put immense pressure and has acted in an extremely hostile way towards these nations, there is little to gain from directly involving themselves in the conflict. For example, if Poland were to start engaging Russian drones and missiles for Ukraine, Russia would be rightfully just to launch a retaliatory attack as shooting down drones or missiles is an act of war. Also, what Ukraine is asking of its neighbors would not solicit an Article 5 response from NATO meaning they would have to fend for themselves against any Russian response. Asking for cooperation from European neighbors to strike down Russian drones and missiles is by far the most outlandish request from the Ukrainians in their victory plan. This request is a guaranteed invitation to direct war with Russia for whoever participates in the shooting down of Russian drones and missiles. This request is so farfetched as no European nation would have any want or strategical reason to assist Ukraine in such a matter. 

The fourth point of Ukraine’s victory plan is the protection and extraction of Ukraine’s vast natural resources. Ukraine has lost a significant amount of its infrastructure due to Russian bombings and airstrikes. Although Ukraine does possess an extreme number of resources that could potentially bring an abundance of wealth to the region, it is almost impossible to extract them while the Ukrainians are still at war with Russia. This fourth point also contains one of the classified points.

The fifth and final proposal is extremely intriguing. After the Ukraine-Russia conflict concludes, the Ukrainians have offered (if admitted to NATO) to replace the United States troops stationed in Europe. The Ukrainians are offering to do so because as of now Ukrainian troops are the most experienced in modern warfare and the use of modern weapons. This plan could be interpreted as a method for the Ukrainians to prove their worth to NATO specifically the United States. American troops have been stationed in Europe since 1917. The number of troops has grown exponentially since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the Department of Defense, the United States has stationed an additional 20,000 American troops since the emergence of the conflict in Ukraine (www.defense.gov). Although it may be beneficial to take some pressure off the United States as they certainly do much of the heavy lifting for the NATO alliance, the removal of United States troops in Europe may hinder America’s power projection. For example, if Russia were to launch an attack on a NATO member, it may take much more time for America to project themselves into the conflict if not having any stationed troops in Europe. 

In conclusion, the Ukrainian victory plan is incredibly ambitious and can be seen more as a wish list than anything. The chances that Ukraine gets admitted to NATO anytime soon are unlikely, as no country desires to be involved in the conflict. Unfortunately, the conflict between the two nations has been going on for this long. The loss of life is horrific on both sides. Hopefully, a swift conclusion to the war can be concluded that installs a peaceful future between Ukraine and Russia.